If road safety policy remains unchanged, the number of road casualties is expected to rise significantly in the coming decades, road safety institute SWOV has said.
The organization said by 2040, the number of road injuries could nearly double compared to 2023, especially amongst cyclists and the elderly. This is outlined in the report Road Safety Forecasts 2040–2060 by SWOV.
Among car occupants, casualties in single-vehicle crashes are expected to decline, while those in multi-vehicle collisions are projected to rise. Due to an aging population, SWOV predicted the number of casualties among mobility scooter users would also grow significantly.
The potential safety effects of vehicle automation have not been included in the forecasts. SWOV said the development of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Automated Driving Systems (ADS) could contribute to improved road safety, but said their real-world impact remained uncertain and pointed to key variables such as market adoption, fleet renewal rates, and actual performance still showing too much variability to allow for reliable projections.
